List of cognitive biases — A cognitive bias is a pattern of poor judgment, often triggered by a particular situation. Identifying poor judgment, or more precisely, a deviation in judgment, requires a standard for comparison, i.e. good judgment . In scientific… … Wikipedia
Futures techniques — In the multi disciplinary field of futurology, futurologists use a diverse range of forecasting methods, including: Anticipatory thinking protocols Delphi method The Delphi method is a very popular technique used in Futures Studies. It was… … Wikipedia
Long range planning — Planning for the future has had a long history. The East India Company may not have promised to win the whole of the Indian subcontinent as a result of its efforts (though it ultimately did just that), but it certainly did understand it was… … Wikipedia
Optimism bias — is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over estimating the likelihood of positive events and under estimating the likelihood of negative events. Along with… … Wikipedia
Nowcasting (economics) — The term ‘nowcasting’ is a contraction of ‘now’ and ‘forecasting’. The term is used in both economics and meteorology. This article is about its use in economics; see meteorology for its use referring to techniques used to make short term weather … Wikipedia
Global climate model — AGCM redirects here. For Italian competition regulator, see Autorità Garante della Concorrenza e del Mercato. Climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. To “run” a model,… … Wikipedia
Software development effort estimation — is the process of predicting the most realistic use of effort required to develop or maintain software based on incomplete, uncertain and/or noisy input. Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, budgets, investment … Wikipedia
Philip Tetlock — Philip E. Tetlock (* 2. März 1954) ist ein US amerikanischer Psychologe. Er ist Professor an der University of California, Berkeley. Inhaltsverzeichnis 1 Leben 2 Arbeit 2.1 Expert Political Judgement … Deutsch Wikipedia
Timeline of the future in forecasts — This timeline of the future in forecasts is a timeline of credible forecasts of near future events and developments in all areas of science, technology, society and the environment.Forecasting informs the planning and policy making processes… … Wikipedia
Mode choice — analysis is the third step in the conventional four step transportation forecasting model, following trip generation and trip distribution but before route assignment. Trip distribution s zonal interchange analysis yields a set of origin… … Wikipedia